Some fans (like myself) loathe reading "
spoilers" for their favorite TV shows or movies. Others actively seek them out.
One of the best parts of being a sports fan is that it's
impossible to look ahead and know the outcome of the season. However, I happened to stumble upon a Sports Almanac and will divulge the results for you now. Of course, if you're prefer not to know what happens this year, skip this post and be surprised instead.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1)
Milwaukee Bucks : 50-22
With the news of Giannis Antetokounmpo's extensions serving as an early Christmas present, the Bucks roll into the year with good vibes and another dominant regular season run. Their new supporting takes some time to gel which leads to some more close games, but in turn that causes Giannis Antetokounmpo to play more minutes and put up better raw stats than ever (averaging 30 PPG for the first time in his career). Despite that, he's not a runaway MVP winner. Some voter fatigue and playoff backlash causes a split vote, with 5 different players receiving first-place voters. When the smoke clears and the dust settles, Giannis wins a close vote to snag his third consecutive MVP trophy.
(2)
Brooklyn Nets : 47-25
The Brooklyn Nets click together early, fueled by a healthy-looking Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They race out to a 30-11 start to the regular season before taking their foot off the gas to help sustain their health. While that decision may help them in the long run, it costs Kevin Durant his early-season MVP buzz (similar to Kawhi Leonard's season in Toronto.) Still, the Nets enter the postseason with good vibes all around, which earns coach Steve Nash several laudatory media reports and nearly enables him to win Coach of the Year (he finishes second.)
(3)
Philadelphia 76ers : 46-26
Speaking of great press, new exec Daryl Morey receives plenty of glowing reviews himself after his tweaks to the roster work wonders. Thanks to the spacing of Seth Curry, Shake Milton, and surprise rookie Isaiah Joe, slashepasser Ben Simmons takes a leap up in efficiency, scoring a career-high 23 points a game and earning 2nd team All-NBA honors. Inside the locker room, it feels like there's a notable shift towards the roster being more of
his team than Joel Embiid's. Of course, the club knows they'll need both of them to dominant to make a Finals push.
(4)
Toronto Raptors : 45-27
Reigning Coach of the Year Nick Nurse doesn't get half as much recognition as he should for another strong year at the helm, helping the club to easily beat their Vegas oveunder of 41.5 wins. Still, there are cracks under the surface. Now at age 34/35, Kyle Lowry looks like he's lost a step and struggles to match his 36 minutes per game from the prior year. Although nothing is official yet, it looks like the team may have to say goodbye to Lowry at the end of the season as he enters free agency.
(5)
Miami Heat : 44-28
The Miami heat don't ride their momentum from the Finals trip into a top seed, partly due to some leaky defense on the perimeter. Frustrated, Pat Riley decides to make a power move and trade for Victor Oladipo. The fit doesn't click right away as the team retains a similar record, but the Heat still feel confident that they can turn up the volume when the playoffs roll around.
(6)
Boston Celtics : 43-29
After losing Gordon Hayward, the Boston Celtics' ascent up the Eastern Conference stagnates. For the first time, the media appears to turn on this likable coach and club, wondering if the team needs to make a dramatic trade to shake up the roster. Ultimately, they decide to hold on to Jaylen Brown and the core and take their chances in the playoffs with the current lineup.
(7)
Indiana Pacers : 38-34
The Indiana Pacers attempt to shift their playing style under new coach Nate Bjorkgren, but some up and down play leads them to make a move and (as mentioned) trade Victor Oladipo prior to his free agency. Afterwards, they play more minutes with PG Aaron Holiday and PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon in the same lineup, a look that leads to a faster paced offense more befitting of Bjorkgren's ultimate goal for the team. That said, the decision about the future of the Myles TurneDomatas Sabonis pairing looms in the background.
(8)
Atlanta Hawks : 35-37
All the moves the Atlanta Hawks made during the offseason pay off -- more or less -- as Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic give Trae Young some much needed help. A year after finishing 26th in total offense, the team leaps up into the top half of the league. Still, struggles on defense keep the team below .500 on the year and lead to a dogfight all year long for that 8th seed.
(9)
Washington Wizards : 34-38
New PG Russell Westbrook earns rave reviews from his teammates and from the press early on, as the club jumps out to a 12-8 record and a presumptive playoff spot thanks to a renewed effort and attitude. Ultimately, their poor defense (ranked 30th last season) and their young frontcourt lead to a few too many losses along the way and prevent them from clinching a playoff spot outright. Coach Scott Brooks is let go after the season in favor of Denver assistant Wes Unseld Jr.
(10)
Charlotte Hornets : 30-42
The Charlotte Hornets' maligned signing of Gordon Hayward doesn't look too bad (in year 1) as Hayward returns to near All-Star levels with averages of 18-6-5. Still, the youth on the roster cripples any chance of a true playoff finish. At the same time, the future looks brighter than before. LaMelo Ball wins a polarizing Rookie of the Year campaign with good raw stats (15-5-7) on bad efficiency, while R2 pick Vernon Carey flirts with All-Rookie team for a solid 11-7 first year as a scoring big off the bench.
(11)
Chicago Bulls : 28-44
One year after winning Coach of the Year for mixing the perfect cocktail in Oklahoma City, Billy Donovan doesn't find the same type of immediate success with the young pieces here in Chicago. Rookie Patrick Williams looks promising, but second year guard Coby White shows more inconsistency than expected in his sophomore campaign.
(12)
Orlando Magic : 28-44
Despite the losses of Jonathan Isaac (injury) and D.J. Augustin (free agency), coach Steve Clifford keeps his team in the playoff mix for the first few months of the season. But once the team stumbles during a 1-5 stretch, the front office decides to wave the white flag and trade Aaron Gordon. For them, the purposes are twofold: to give more opportunity to rookie PF Chuma Okeke, and to eye a higher draft pick in a strong class. With that rebuild in mind, the team decides to empower rookie PG Cole Anthony over the last few month, indicating that free agent Markelle Fultz may not be in their future plans after all.
(13)
Detroit Pistons : 25-47
Returning from injury, Blake Griffin flashes the All-NBA caliber talent that he displayed two years ago when he led the team to a 41-41 record. However, Griffin continues to miss time here and there, effectively ending the team's chances of being a true playoff contender. The limited spacing also reveals itself, as the team struggles mightily to score in the games Griffin misses (finishing 8-19 without him.)
(14)
New York Knicks : 24-48
Hard-charging coach Tom Thibodeau pushes the Knicks too much for them to garner the top spot in the NBA Draft, but they still manage to finish in the bottom 5. For all the early Rookie of the Year buzz for Obi Toppin, he fails to win the award due to Thibodeau overplaying Julius Randle and Toppin's own bad stats on defense.
(15)
Cleveland Cavaliers : 21-51
The undersized perimeter leads to an awful defense that leaves the Cavaliers among the worst in the league yet again. The team attempts to trade Kevin Love to a contender, but an injury complicates that timeline and leads to an offseason exit for the big man instead.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Clippers : 48-24
After their embarrassing flameout against Denver, the L.A. Clippers come back with a chip on their shoulder and an eagerness to change the narrative about them. Their regular season play remains similar (top 5 in offense and defense), but comes with more effort and chemistry as a unit. By the time the season ends, they've gotten right back to the level of the Lakers in terms of title odds (+270).
(2) Los Angeles Lakers : 47-25
Unlike their cross-town rival (or rather, same-stadium rival), the L.A. Lakers don't feel the need to drive hard in the regular season after winning the title. LeBron James drastically reduces his workload in the regular season, going from 34.6 minutes a night down to 33.5. In the process, the Lakers lose their grip on the # 1 seed and LeBron James' loses his argument for another MVP. But as the playoffs approach, they don't seem to mind at all; they're still the betting favorite to win the title in Vegas.
(3) Utah Jazz : 44-28
After a full year in the system, PG Mike Conley's struggles are behind him and he helps the team threaten for the # 1 seed. Returning big man Derrick Favors helps the depth and helps the defense return to the top 8 (after falling to 13th last year), and wing Royce O'Neale finally gets some credit for that as well, finishing on the All-Defense team.
(4) Denver Nuggets : 43-29
While the Utah Jazz thrive because of their defense, Denver disappoints because of a declining one. Michael Porter Jr. looks like a future All-Star with averages of 16.7 points per game, but his struggles on the other end (in contrast to Jerami Grant) lead the Nuggets to finish in the bottom half of the league on D and prevent them from the presumptive step up that many expect.
(5) Dallas Mavericks : 41-31
Luka Doncic and company look as good as ever, but their returns demand on expectations. Luka Doncic puts up MVP-caliber stats, but doesn't actually win it (losing to Giannis.) The historically good offense takes a dip as the team realizes how much they miss Seth Curry. In his place, Josh Richardson underwhelms for his second straight team.
(6) New Orleans Pelicans : 38-34
After getting a lot of flak and a lot of flab, Zion Williams looks rejuvenated early on and the hype about him returns quickly. New coach Stan Van Gundy settles on rotations faster than Alvin Gentry did, and trusts his former player J.J. Redick more than Gentry did as well. Redick and Steven Adams' veteran leadership helps the youngsters play hard and fast every night, leading to a playoff spot despite inconsistent shooting as a team. Van Gundy wins Coach of the Year for the unexpected playoff trip and high seed.
(7) Portland Trail Blazers : 37-35
Despite a lot of good will and public support (including a projected # 2 seed from ESPN's Bobby Marks), Portland looks like the same ol' Blazers again with strong offense and poor defense. The feel-good Carmelo Anthony storyline ends poorly. Coach Terry Stotts shelves Anthony towards the second half of the season (due to poor defensive numbers), leading Anthony to bristle and ultimately work out a buy-out with the team.
(8) Phoenix Suns : 37-35
The Phoenix Suns officially turn the corner and become a winning team. Still, there's a stark contrast between their play with Chris Paul and without Chris Paul. And unfortunately for them, Paul's not as healthy as he had been the year before for OKC. He ends up missing 24 games, during which the Suns go 10-14.
(9) Houston Rockets : 36-36
The Houston Rockets play hardball and push the Philadelphia 76ers for a James Harden-Ben Simmons trade, but Daryl Morey and the Rockets stonewall them (feeling no time crunch, given that their stars are both young and on long-term deals.) Fortunately for the Rockets, James Harden sucks it up, starts the year in a Rocket uniform, and immediately looks like an MVP contender again with his incredible workload and efficiency. Alas, his new backcourt mate John Wall doesn't look quite at the same level in his first year back. Wall's struggles hurt the team's ceiling, and ultimately cast a dark cloud over their future (with Wall owed over $40M in each of the next 3 years.) The Harden trade may have been avoided for now, but still looks likely in the offseason.
(10) Golden State Warriors : 34-38
Returning star Steph Curry flashes the talent that made him a two-time MVP for stretches, but minor injuries keep derailing the momentum he has for an MVP push and for a playoff push for the team. Draymond Green doesn't snap back to prime form as many Warriors fans had hoped, leaving some doubt about his future with the club. Fortunately, rookie C James Wiseman steadily improves and looks like a future stud. Unfortunately, it won't be good enough to help the team for this season.
(11) Sacramento Kings: 32-40
The bad buzz about the Sacramento Kings turns around as a healthy De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III jumpstart an improvement from the year before. In fact, Bagley flirts with 20-10 averages, finishing just shy with 18.8 points per game. As a combo guard off the bench, Tyrese Haliburton is one of the most effective rookies in the class. Savvy analysts like Kevin Pelton push for him to win Rookie of the Year, but his limited minutes and counting stats leave him snubbed for the trophy.
(12) San Antonio Spurs : 31-41
The San Antonio Spurs get out to a strong 14-12 start thanks to an improved defense (and a lack of Bryn Forbes), leading many to campaign for Gregg Popovich as a potential Coach of the Year. Eventually the team lags behind in the crowded Western Conference and turns the reins over to the youngsters. DeMar DeRozan gets reduced time down the stretch as the team gets an extended look at Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell as the potential wings of the future.
(13) Minnesota Timberwolves : 29-43
Karl-Anthony Towns continues his blistering pace from three, but doubt lingers about the roster construction beyond that as the next best players (D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and Malik Beasley) all look like scoring guards. Among them, Beasley appears to be the odd man out, leading to a trade to Orlando in a package that yields back Aaron Gordon. Gordon helps the team's defense, but not in time to make a playoff push for this particular year.
(14) Memphis Grizzlies : 27-45
After a disappointing start to the season, the Grizzlies see no rush to bring back Jaren Jackson Jr. for heavy minutes. Instead, they try to find the right supporting players for the long haul. To that end, PF Brandon Clarke confirms his strong rookie season was no fluke, setting himself up for starters' minutes next season (with the idea being that they'll shift Jaren Jackson to the center position full time as well.)
(15) Oklahoma City Thunder : 18-54
Sam Presti and new coach Mark Daigneault work in tandem to help secure a top lottery pick for the club. Thanks to newly expanded rosters, the Thunder team looks even more anonymous than the Hinkie Sixers by the end, playing the equivalent of G-Leaguers for the last few weeks of the season. While OKC lands the top slot going into the lottery, they end up with the # 3 pick and miss out on the chance to draft local product Cade Cunningham. Still, it may be a blessing in disguise, as other top prospects SG Jalen Green and C Evan Mobley project to be good complements to foundational piece Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
PLAY-IN GAMES
The Charlotte Hornets earn some buzz (get it??) and some predictions that they'll knock off the Indiana Pacers, but the Pacers handle their business and win 1-0. Meanwhile, the 8th-9th series between Atlanta and Washington is a dogfight. Russell Westbrook helps the Wizards win Game 1 with a 23-9-11 line, but he goes an ugly 7-23 in the second game as the Hawks win out.
ROUND ONE
(1) Milwaukee vs. (8) Atlanta
Atlanta's momentum is short-lived, as Giannis Antetounkoumpo and company crush them like bugs, 4-1.
(2) Brooklyn vs. (7) Indiana
Indiana fights harder than expected and manages to tie the series 2-2, but Kyrie Irving has a massive game 5 (43 points) and helps lead to a 4-2 win.
(3) Philadelphia vs. (6) Boston
Forget tough series -- this is an all-out war. Doc Rivers battles against his old team, and has an ace up his sleeve in the mammoth Joel Embiid whose size causes fits for the Celtics. With better shooting around him this time, it's enough to knock off the Celts, 4-3.
(4) Toronto vs. (5) Miami
Another great R1 series goes to the wire in Game 7. The Raptors' length bothers Jimmy Butler inside, but Miami's shooters provide enough of a pop to pull it out, 4-3.
ROUND TWO
(1) Milwaukee vs. (5) Miami
Milwaukee needs to exercise their demons from last year, facing the time that knocked them off. This time around, Giannis is fully healthy and paired with a big-time playoff competitor in Jrue Holiday, who helps provide the difference as the Bucks win 4-2. At this point, many analysts feel like this will be "Giannis' year."
(2) Brooklyn vs. (3) Philadelphia
In another high-profile clash, coaches Steve Nash and Doc Rivers receive a lot of spotlight for their star-studded teams. Unfortunately, Rivers has no answer in the bank for Kevin Durant, who averages 34.8 points en route to a 4-2 victory.
ROUND THREE
(1) Milwaukee vs. (2) Brooklyn
All year long, it looks like Milwaukee may have shaken off their playoff troubles and finally achieved their destiny. However, after a 2-1 lead, the tide starts to turn. Jarrett Allen and Kevin Durant's length helps limit Giannis to a mediocre series, allowing the Nets to rattle off 3 straight wins and make the Finals.
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
PLAY-IN GAMES
A play-in series between former teammates James Harden and Chris Paul favors CP3 and his supporting cast, as the Suns officially cement their playoff spot. While Steph Curry and the Warriors haven't had a strong year, they manage to steal game 1 from Portland thanks to 6 threes from Curry. However, Damian Lillard and the Blazers crank it up a notch and squeak by in Game 2 to advance.
(1) L.A. Clippers vs. (8) Phoenix
Chris Paul gives his former team fits, but ultimately the Clippers pull out a slugfest, 4-2.
(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (7) Portland
A rematch of last year's R1 series goes in a similar direction, as the Lakers crush the Blazers 4-1. Anthony Davis averages 31-15, causing many to cite him as a top 3 player overall and future MVP.
(3) Utah vs. (6) New Orleans
The surging New Orleans Pelicans are a trendy pick for an upset, but the Utah Jazz continue to play the role of sleeper well, utilizing their defense and Donovan Mitchell's scoring (29.3 per game) to a comfortable 4-2 victory.
(4) Denver vs. (5) Dallas
Luka Doncic goes bananas against a soft Denver defense, logging 37-14-8 in Game 1 and 42 points in Game 3. However, Denver manages to get the job done in a 4-3 series. After the series, talk swirls about whether the Mavericks may need a third star to take the next jump. Mark Cuban spends the offseason on rosetta stone learning Greek.
ROUND TWO
(1) L.A. Clippers vs. (4) Denver
Another rematch from last year, but one that doesn't lead to a repeat outcome. The Clippers are extremely motivated to put the Nuggets away when they have the chance, turning a 3-1 lead into a 4-1 victory this time.
(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (3) Utah
The plucky Utah Jazz give the favored Lakers everything they can handle and even take a 2-1 lead in the series. However, some big performances from LeBron James (and some questionable officiating) help the Lakers rally back to win three in a row and secure the ballyhooed showdown against the Clippers.
ROUND THREE
(1) L.A. Clippers vs. (2) L.A. Lakers
A must-see TV rematch between Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James comes down to the "Others," as new Clippers' SG Luke Kennard plays much better than Lakers' shooters KCP and Kyle Kuzma. When the dust settles, the Clippers pull it out 4-2. After the series, the Lakers cite a lingering wrist injury to Anthony Davis as a potential reason why they didn't look 100%.
NBA FINALS
(2) Brooklyn Nets vs. (1) L.A. Clippers
The NBA world misses out on a KD-LeBron series (or a Kyrie-LeBron series, depending on your perspective), but we still get an awesome matchup with other superstars like Durant and Kawhi Leonard. Leonard and Paul George bother KD to some degree, but the Nets' backcourt of Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris keeps their offense moving nonetheless. Irving has a few signature games (37 in Game 2, 31-9 in Game 5) compared to a quieter Paul George (15.8 PPG in the series) and helps the BROOKLYN NETS win the NBA CHAMPIONSHIP in a 4-2 win. KD wins a close vote for Finals MVP, but Irving and coach Steve Nash get a lot of credit as well.
submitted by The NBA has seen a lot of significant matchups throughout history. This is part of a series I've been doing that encompasses the MLB, NFL, and NHL as well. However, this will probably be the longest as the NBA has seen plenty of lopsided postseason rivalries in history. This is thanks in large part to the lack of parity in several decades, mostly the Lakers and Celtics.
I realized too late that I included division tiebreaker matchups as playoff series. This may have affected a few, but it does give you more to read I guess.
Without further ado, here goes:
Lakers over Nuggets (6-0): one of the main reasons why Denver has had a bad reputation of being first-round puppy chow and being the second-oldest franchise to never make the NBA Finals can be blamed on the Lakers (the Spurs too, more on that later). Denver has only won 7 postseason meetings with LA's premier team. They had chances to make the NBA finals in 1985 and 2009 but were curb-stomped by the Lakers. Ouch.
Celtics over Bulls (5-0): it is really unfortunate that MJ never had a chance to right the ship for the Bulls in this postseason matchup as they never met the Celtics in the postseason. The most stinging loss in the series for Chicago is probably their 2009 first round where they dropped 2 crucial OT games en route to a tough 7-game loss. Chicago was swept 3 out of 5 times in this matchup and most recently they blew a 2-0 lead to lose in 6 in the first round of 2017, though injuries played a major role in Chicago's collapse.
Celtics over Rockets (4-0): Houston has some pretty bad memories against Boston including getting two quick second-round exits in 1975 and 1980 (yes, they were in the same conference at one point) and getting denied 2 NBA titles in 1981 and 1986. Although outmatched, those NBA Finals still saw the Rockets put up a competitive fight only to lose to overall stronger teams. It was just too bad, but Houston did get its chance to shine in the 90s at least.
Celtics over Warriors (4-0): these playoff matchups took place in the 50s and 60s, and most of them were when the Warriors were still in Philadelphia. Boston was simply too strong of a team, although the Warriors came agonizingly close in the 1962 Eastern Division Finals only to lose on a Sam Jones game-winner with two seconds left in the decisive Game 7 (and the Celtics went on to win the Finals too, ouch). The Warriors did get a crack at Boston again in the 1964 Finals but they were quickly outgunned in 5 games.
Warriors over Rockets (4-0): one of the main reasons the Rockets haven't been able to advance very far under the leadership of James Harden can be blamed on the Warriors, as they've absolutely owned this playoff matchup. The worst came in the 2018 WCF when the Rockets blew a 3-2 series lead and missed 27 straight 3-pointers in the deciding Game 7 to lose what could've been a very winnable 101-92 decision in the end. Worse, the Dubs went on to win another NBA Finals that year.
Celtics over Royals (3-0): these playoff matchups are ancient as they took place in the very early days of the NBA (50s and 60s). Notably, these teams met in the Eastern Division Conference Finals two straight years from 1963-1964. The 1963 series was particularly exciting and saw the deciding game taken by Boston in an unreal 142-131 contest. Naturally, the Celtics won the title both years too.
Jazz over Clippers (3-0): the few years the Clippers made the playoffs in the 90s, the Jazz had their way with them in the first round. 1992 was especially rough as the Clippers almost came from 2-0 down only to drop the deciding Game 5 98-89 (Game 4 was notably played in Anaheim due to the riots). More recently, Lob City took another heartbreaking defeat in a 7-game First Round loss in 2017.
Suns over Warriors (3-0): the Warriors have historically been one of the runts of the Western Conference and usually played like one in the playoffs, and it showed against stronger teams like the Suns. Phoenix pulled off series wins over Golden State in the 1976 WCF, 1989 West semis, and 1994 first round. 1976 was especially painful as the Warriors blew a 3-2 lead, losing by 1 point in Game 6 and then dropping the decisive Game 7 at home, losing 94-86 and preventing a possible repeat title (Golden State won in 1975).
Heat over Nets (3-0): New Jersey and later Brooklyn just never stood a chance against those Miami teams led by D-Wade in 2005 and 2006 and later The Big 3 in 2014. Brooklyn only has two playoff wins against Miami in the 2006 East semis and the 2014 East semis. That 2014 series was notable in essentially driving a dagger in the superteam on crack that Brooklyn tried to pull off. The 2006 series win helped the Heat win the NBA title that year, and 2014 saw them back in the Finals.
Pistons over Pacers (3-0): as even as the regular-season matchup is (Indiana leads 101-97), Detroit has done far more winning in the postseason. Both their 1990 and 2004 NBA titles went through Indiana as did their march to the 2005 NBA Finals. 2004 was probably the hardest for Indiana as that was the ECF. Despite being the top seed, they were no match for Detroit's superb defense and were held to under 80 points for all but 1 game. Four of the six games in that matchup saw the winning team score less than 80 points, no team scored 90 points or more in that series, and the deciding Game 6 was an ugly 69-65 win. Worse for Indiana, they couldn't get Reggie Miller back to the Finals.
Warriors over Trail Blazers (3-0): these matchups all came in the late 2010s when Golden State was absolutely lighting up the league. Portland has been dominated in this matchup for a long time and has only one playoff win against the Warriors in these three matchups. As a Dub fan myself, I usually enjoy watching Damian Lillard play us since he's a hometown kid, but I feel bad that he's been smashed by his favorite team growing up.
Warriors over Pistons (3-0): these are some obscure matchups that took place primarily in the 70s where Golden State won over Detroit in the 1976 semis and the first round of 1977 (yes, Detroit and Golden State were in the same conference at one point). Most notably, however, the Warriors (then in Philly) got their second NBA title in 1956 over the Pistons (then in Fort Wayne), romping them in 5 close games.
Warriors over Hawks (3-0): these matchups all took place in the 60s, so they're very old. The most notable of the three is the 1964 and 1967 Conference Finals matchups. The Hawks came oh so close in 1964 only to drop the deciding Game 7 105-95. 1967 was also rough as home-court advantage finally failed St. Louis in a rough 112-107 loss in the deciding Game 6. At least the Warriors wound up losing both NBA Finals.
Knickerbockers over Cavaliers (3-0): you can blame the Patrick Ewing era for most of this, as his knicks romped over Cleveland in the 1995 and 1996 First Rounds. Yes, there was an era of Cleveland basketball before LeBron, but most of it was either terrible or highlighted by early playoff exits. New York was part of the reason why.
Cavaliers over Hawks (3-0): blame The King for this utter domination of a series. Not only has Atlanta lost every playoff matchup against Cleveland, they've been swept in all three of them. Atlanta finally made the ECF in 2015 as the 1-seed only to get completely blown out of the water by an honestly superior Cavs squad.
Cavaliers over Raptors (3-0): prior to Toronto winning it in 2019, they were puppy chow for LeBron and the Cavs from 2016-18. They actually put up a great fight in the 2016 ECF (their first Conference Finals in franchise history), evening the series at 2 after being down 2-0, but lost by 36 in Game 5 then 26 in the deciding Game 6. They got swept in 2017 and 2018, the latter of which came in spite of them being the 1-seed that year.
Cavaliers over Nets (3-0): the Nets simply weren't that strong of a team in the 90s and the Cavs made quick work of them in 1992 and 1993. The 1993 First Round matchup was pretty competitive but the Nets lost the decisive Game 5 99-89 in what would be Drazen Petrovic's final NBA game before his tragic death. More recently, LeBron rolled through New Jersey in the 2007 semis en route to his first NBA Finals appearance.
Lakers over Royals/Kings (10-1): no matter where the Royals/Kings franchise has been, they've always been easy pickings for the Lakers franchise. Their last playoff matchup, the 2002 WCF, was especially heartbreaking especially as some allegations that certain aspects of that series were rigged in favor of the Lakers came out (also, had Robert Horry's buzzer-beater when the Lakers were down 2 not happened, Sacramento wins the series). The Royals/Kings only postseason victory came in the 1951 Western Division Finals in 4 games en route to the franchise's only NBA title. So oddly enough, it's actually Sacramento that owns the longest active title drought.
Lakers over Warriors (6-1): don't let the 2010s fool you, the Warriors have been one of the NBA's inferior franchises for a very long time and were usually beaten into oblivion by their Southern California rivals. Throughout the 60s-90s, the Warriors could only claim the inaugural postseason meeting between the two: the 1967 Western Division Semifinals which San Francisco swept, a stepping stone to an NBA Finals appearance.
Bulls over Knickerbockers (6-1): this one was no contest, as MJ basically ate the Knicks for breakfast throughout his career. He's undefeated against them, as the Knicks would have to wait until his first retirement into baseball to finally get a postseason win over Chicago (on their sixth try...). That came in the 1994 East semis, and even then, it took seven games and a horrible foul call by Hue Hollins in Game 4 to give the Knicks free throws in the dying seconds to come back from 86-85 down, winning 87-86. MJ returned a few years later and once again destroyed the Knicks in the 1996 semis.
Celtics over Hawks (10-2): the Celtics owned the Hawks in the Finals when the latter was in St. Louis, then destroyed them in the first round and semis when the Hawks relocated to Atlanta. Although...the Hawks' only NBA title to date did come at the expense of Boston in 1958, a series St. Louis won in 6 games (also the last championship team to not feature an African American player, in fact, there was a whole controversy about why Bill Russell didn't play for the Hawks and it has in part to do with this). Atlanta later took the most recent playoff meeting between the two, a 6-game domination in the first round of 2016 that really wasn't that close.
Lakers over Nationals/76ers (5-1): all of these matchups were in the NBA Finals, and to put it lightly, let's just say LA has done a whole lotta more winning in this one. The Showtime Lakers got two of the wins while Kobe got another. Philadelphia's only win came courtesy of Dr. J and Moses Malone in the 1983 NBA Finals where Philadelphia gave Showtime a taste of its own medicine in an absolutely dominating sweep. It was also Philadelphia's last title and both Dr. J and Malone's only Finals win.
Knickerbockers over Bullets (5-1): the Knicks met the Bullets a whopping six straight years from 1969-1974, and led by the likes of Walt Frazier, the Knicks usually had a significant upper hand. Their 1970 and 1973 playoff series wins, in particular, helped propel the Knicks to their only 2 NBA championships to date. The only win by the Bullets in this matchup? The 1971 ECF (the Bullets were still in Baltimore at the time) which saw Baltimore win a close 93-91 matchup in New York in the deciding Game 7 after being down 2-0 and later 3-2 in the series (also, finally winning on the road).
Lakers over Trail Blazers (9-2): blame a lot of this on the Showtime Lakers and Kobe Bryant. Portland could've had deeper playoff runs certain years if they didn't keep on getting matched up with LA. 2000 probably still stings many Rip City fans, as Portland blew a late double-digit lead in the deciding Game 7 to once again drop the ball against the Lakers (oh yeah, they would go on to win the championship that year just to twist the knife some more). Portland's only two wins? The first came in the 1977 WCF in which Bill Walton obliterated Kareem en route to a sweep and the franchise's only NBA title to date. Portland could also claim a 4-game win in the 1992 First Round series en route to another NBA Finals appearance. Said series was famous for the decider having to be played in Vegas due to the infamous LA riots that year.
Lakers over Bulls (4-1): yes, there was a time these teams met regularly in the playoffs, and it was LA that came out on top throughout the 60s and 70s. However, this matchup is probably most famous for giving us the 1991 NBA Finals in which MJ and the Bulls put up a clinic against the Lakers in 5 games, giving the GOAT (yes, I'm saying that) his first of many NBA titles and all but ending the Showtime Lakers era.
Spurs over Grizzlies (4-1): this postseason matchup has not been fun for Memphis, who came in as the much weaker team all the time. Three of Memphis' four losses have been sweeps. Their only victory in this matchup was significant, however, as it was their first series win in franchise history and it's one of the few 8-vs-1 first-round upsets in NBA history. Zach Randolph had a monster series and the Grizzlies won all of their home games to move on.
Pistons over Bucks (4-1): Detroit romped over Milwaukee en route to their 1989 and 2004 NBA Finals victories. Additionally, Detroit won playoff matchups over the Bucks in 1976 and 2006. However, the Bucks were finally able to snatch a playoff series in this one, destroying the Pistons in a sweep in the 2019 First Round highlighted by The Greek Freak's 41 points in the deciding Game 4.
Cavaliers over Wizards (4-1): blame this one on LeBron. He took three straight playoff meetings over Washington from 2006-08 and was the reason why the Wizards were always first-round punching bags. The Cavs also got an additional 7-game series win over the Bullets (as they were then known) in the 1976 semis. Washington's only postseason series win in this matchup is a 1977 First Round matchup that Washington took in 3 games (notably, Game 2 was Nate Thurmond's final NBA game).
Celtics over Lakers (9-3): when you think of historical postseason domination, this is likely the series that comes to mind (at least it did for me). The Lakers were a punching bag for the Celtics in the Finals in the 50s and especially the 60s. They're the reason why Jerry West has just 1 NBA Finals win and Elgin Baylor never won a ring actually playing for the Lakers (LA did give him a ring for "honorary contributions", honestly a very kind gesture by the organization). The heartbreak continued in 1984, but Showtime finally won out in 1985 and 1987. More recently, the teams split the 2008 and 2010 Finals, with the Big 3 in Boston winning the former and Kobe getting his revenge in the latter.
Lakers over Pistons (9-3): whether in Fort Wayne or Detroit, LA has absolutely owned this matchup historically, although you can kind of blame the pre-70s matchups for that. Prior to 1989, all the Pistons organization could claim in this matchup was a 1955 Western Division Finals victory in 4 games en route to an NBA Finals appearance. Detroit then lost the 1988 Finals to the Showtime Lakers to go down 9-1 in this postseason matchup. But the Bad Boys got revenge in 1989, annihilating the Lakers in a sweep behind the likes of Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Later, the Pistons upset Kobe and the Lakers in a 2004 Finals, wrecking them with solid defense over 5 games to claim their 3rd and last title to date.
Nationals/76ers over Knickerbockers (9-3): after winning both the 1951 and 1952 EDF over the Nationals (the former in 5, the latter in 4, unfortunately, the Knicks would lose both NBA Finals in 7 games), the 76ers have done far more winning in this series. Having Wilt and later Dr. J will help you out a ton. The most recent playoff matchup, however, saw the Knicks upend the Sixers in a First Round sweep in 1989 punctuated by Gerald Wilkins hitting the game-winner in OT with 6 seconds left in the deciding Game 3 to win the game for New York 116-115.
SuperSonics/Thunder over Rockets (6-2): I was actually a bit surprised to see this one. Seattle was simply too much for Houston to handle even when the Rockets had the likes of Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler. It took them their sixth try against Seattle to finally pull out a series win in 1997 West semis, and even then, it took 7 games and Seattle nearly came back from 3-1 down. When the Sonics relocated to OKC, Houston was thrashed in their 2013 First Round matchup but countered in 2017 as the Thunder without KD was no match. That series produced a hilarious moment in Andre Roberson getting fouled intentionally and even running away from Houston players to help his team not lose the game.
Spurs over Nuggets (5-2): the Nuggets have historically played awfully against San Antonio and it's shown in the postseason as well. Until last season, Denver could only claim a 3-2 first-round victory in the 1985 postseason (a series in which their offense scored 141 points in the opening game and was never held to under 111). More recently, the Nuggets won a hard-fought 7-game first-round series against the Spurs last postseason, pulling off a close 90-86 win in the decider to win their first postseason series in 10 years. They also notably won their first game in the Alamo City since 2012 in that matchup.
Celtics over Bucks (5-2): you can blame the 80s for Boston's generally superb performance over Milwaukee, as they took three out of the four playoff matchups in that decade. The only blemish was the 1983 semis in which Milwaukee famously swept the Celtics in Boston's first sweep since 1954 (read more about that sweep in the Celtics over Nationals/76ers section). More recently, Milwaukee crushed the living daylights out of Boston in the 2019 semis in 5 games in their deepest playoff run in years which unfortunately ended in the ECF.
Bulls over Cavaliers (5-2): long-time Cavs fans will likely get PTSD moments just hearing the name Michael Jordan, as he had some of his clutchest moments against the Cavs including The Shot and later The Shot II. Chicago also earned two sweeps in a row in 1992 and 1993. LeBron James helped right the ship just a little bit in the 2010 First Round (a dominant 5-game romp) and the 2015 semis (highlighted by a buzzer-beater by James in Game 4 and absolute destruction of the Bulls in the deciding Game 6, a 94-73 win), but there's still a little ways to go for Cleveland in this one.
Lakers over Spurs (8-4): the Showtime Lakers won the first four playoff matchups against San Antonio, but the Spurs started climbing back in the series with a 6-game win in the 1995 semifinals and a sweep in the 1999 semifinals over Kobe. The latter is notable for being a stepping stone to San Antonio's first NBA title. Kobe would have much more success against the Spurs in the 2000s, going 4-1 against them in that time with just the 2003 semis being the only blemish (a series that saw a Robert Horry shot almost win Game 5 and complete a comeback, San Antonio won a championship that year too). Most recently, San Antonio wrecked a disappointing and hobbled Lakers in the 2013 playoffs in a first-round sweep en route to the NBA Finals.
Lakers over Suns (8-4): the Lakers throughout the 70s and 80s were the far more dominant team and won the first 6 postseason matchups against Phoenix. The Suns, however, famously ended a string of 8 consecutive LA trips to the WCF by blasting the Lakers in 5 in the 1990 semifinals. Later, Phoenix survived a scare in the 1993 first round as the 8th-seeded Lakers went up 2-0 before Paul Westphal guaranteed the Suns would come back. They did in dramatic fashion as Dan Majerle tied Game 5 late and the Suns would go on to win in OT (Phoenix marched all the way to the Finals). Kobe Bryant, surprisingly, had just a 2-2 record against Phoenix as Steve Nash and Co were simply too much in the mid-2000s (Phoenix came back from 3-1 down in 2006 and destroyed LA in 5 in 2007), although his win in the 2010 series propelled the Lakers to their last NBA title to date.
Lakers over SuperSonics/Thunder (6-3): the Showtime Lakers and even the Lakers of the 90s had postseason field days against the Sonics, although it was actually Seattle that got the first two victories in this matchup: a 3-game victory in their 1978 First Round matchup that saw Seattle march all the way to the NBA Finals, and an exciting 5-game semifinals win en route to the franchise's only NBA title to date. Kobe Bryant owned a 2-1 postseason record over the franchise, winning in 1998 and 2011, but the franchise finally pulled off a series win against LA in 2012 as KD and Westbrook annihilated the Lakers in 5 games in the semifinals en route to an NBA Finals appearance.
76ers over Bucks (6-3): Milwaukee has taken more than its fair share of series losses to the Sixers, most recently a heartbreaking 7-game loss in the 2001 ECF. However, Milwaukee has still been competitive at times. A young Kareem led the Bucks to a dominant 5-game semis win in 1970 (which included a whopping 156-120 thrashing in Philly in Game 3). Later, the Bucks would win a tough 7-game semis matchup in 1986 with the go-ahead score in the deciding Game 7 actually coming from a Barkley goaltending (Milwaukee won 113-112). The last Milwaukee win came one year later in the 1987 First Round which Jack Sikma hit a fantastic game-winner in Game 3 and the Bucks romp to a 102-89 win in the deciding Game 5 in Dr. J's final game.
Hawks over Pistons (6-3): when the Hawks were in St. Louis, they absolutely dominated the Pistons in postseason play, losing just once in the 1956 East Finals as Fort Wayne became the first team to ever come back from a 2-0 deficit. Atlanta later took the 1986 First Round matchup, but Detroit countered with a dominant 5-game romp in the 1987 semis which saw Isiah Thomas hit the game-winner in Game 4 with 1 second left. The Pistons would later get a 5-game romp over Atlanta in the First Round of 1991, but Atlanta won the last two playoff series and that's where we stand.
Celtics over Nationals/Sixers (13-8): while not nearly as dominant as some of the other matchups on this list, it's still pretty much highlights just how dominant Boston was. The Nationals actually dominated the 50s of this matchup, sweeping the 1954 Eastern Division Semis in 2 games (after claiming a Round Robin victory earlier), taking the 1955 Conference Finals in 4 games en route to an NBA Finals win, and winning the 1956 semis in 3 games. However, it's been mostly Boston from here on out, though Philly famously stole the 1967 EDF in 5 (highlighted by Wilt's unofficial quadruple-double in Game 1 and Wilt's record-setting 41 rebound performance in Game 3) to disrupt Boston's dominant record of the 60s and score an NBA Finals berth. Philly also took a hard-fought 7-game 1977 semis matchup en route to the NBA Finals and dominant 5-game ECF in 1980 en route to another NBA Finals, and a nice 7-game series win in the 1982 ECF that saw the Sixers prevent another 3-1 comeback from Boston (they blew a 3-1 lead in the 1981 ECF) and famously got Celtics fans to cheer for them to beat LA in the deciding Game 7 (they didn't that year but would the following year, so the fans kinda got what they hoped for).
submitted by The NBA season hasn't started yet, but that doesn't mean that coaches should feel entirely comfortable in their offices quite yet. Circumstances change quickly, and coaching positions can change quickly along with them.
Through this (super long) post, I wanted to assess each coach's job security for this 2019-20 season. There's no simple or accurate metric for measuring this, so I'm going to give an estimated and subjective appraisal of their chances of getting fired, either in mid-season or at the end of the season.
I LOVE YOU, PLEASE DON'T LEAVE ME (listed alphabetically by team)
Golden State: Steve Kerr After 5 years on the job, Steve Kerr has a winning percentage of .785 in the regular season, and 3 NBA titles in the postseason. In fact, the team's 57-25 record last year was the
worst of his tenure so far. So yes, his job is safe. Kerr could coach the next 10 years there if he wanted. For Kerr, it's not a matter of job security; it's a matter of health. He's been able to endure his constant back pain in pursuit of titles, but will he have the same resolve if the team sags into "good but not great" status? TBD.
chance of firing: 0%.
chance of retirement: 10%.
L.A. Clippers: Doc Rivers A few years ago, Doc Rivers was almost the victim of his own success. His gaudy resume had allowed him to take charge of the L.A. Clippers front office, and he simply didn't do a great job in that role. However, he wisely took more of a backseat there, and embraced the job (head coach) that he's quite good at. The 48-34 record last year re-established his coaching cred, and the new superstars should energize him for a few more seasons at least.
chance of firing / retirement: 2% San Antonio: Gregg Popovich Along with Steve Kerr, Gregg Popovich is firmly in the "you can stay as long as you want" camp. And he nearly has. He's been at the helm for 23 years. Amazing, the last two seasons (47-35, 48-34) have amounted to Pop's worst percentages over the course of a full season. He's one of the greatest ever, and unlike some old veteran coaches, hasn't lost his fastball whatsoever. He's constantly adapted, evolved, and thrived. But as with Kerr, the question is whether Popovich is nearing the end of the road, for personal reasons. He's 70 now, and in control of Team USA. He may hand the baton off and focus on that job going forward. I suspect he'll give it a go in both roles until the Olympics at least, but it's no longer a guarantee.
chances of firing: 0%.
chances of retiring: 20%.
I STILL LOVE YOU, BUT WE MAY NEED COUPLES COUNSELING (listed alphabetically)
Boston: Brad Stevens A season or two ago, Brad Stevens was the golden boy coach in the NBA. After a slightly underwhelming 49-33 season, we're starting to see some grumbles about his offense (which isn't as free-flowing and ball-moving as his age may suggest.) The Celtics will replace Kyrie Irving with Kemba Walker, but expectations aren't much lower. If the team can't grab a top 4 seed, those grumbles may grow. And if the Boston-Stevens love affair ends, would he start to eye a move back to the NCAA? Probably not, but we can't promise the marriage lasts forever.
chances of firing: 2%,
chances of leaving: 5%.
Miami: Erik Spoelstra Although the Miami Heat have been mediocre lately (124-122 over the last three years), I'm still be inclined to group in Erik Spoelstra in with the "untouchables." After all, this is a 2-time champion coach with 500+ career wins prior to the age of 50 (48 years old right now.) Even if the Miami Heat underachieve and miss the playoffs again, I don't think Pat Riley would want to rock the boat on this culture. Still, Jimmy Butler is a handful, and potential addition Chris Paul isn't a bed of roses either. If Spoelstra can't get "buy in" from his new stars, then there may be more trouble in paradise than we expect. Again, it's a very small chance a divorce happens, but we can't give it a 0 either.
chance of firing: 4%.
JUST DON'T EMBARRASS ME IN PUBLIC (listed alphabetically)
Cleveland: John Beilein It's hard to under-estimate the leverage rookie coach John Beilein has with the organization right now. They lured him from Michigan with a 5 year contract, where he'll be "working for" a front office that features assistant GM Mike Gansey (Beilein's former player.) Simply put: they're going to hand him this team and allow him to build a program in his image. Despite that, it doesn't mean the transition will work like a charm (just ask Billy Donovan.) Beilein is 66 years old, and has never coached in the pros before. He may simply decide that he hates the NBA and walk away prematurely. Still, it's hard to imagine that happening
this early barring any unforeseen health issues.
chances of firing: 1%.
chances of leaving: 5%. Memphis: Taylor Jenkins Although they have wildly different resumes and backgrounds, Taylor Jenkins will be in a similar boat to John Beilein. He's inheriting a team that's in a rebuilding situation, and should afford him a lot of patience going forward. The Wharton-grad Jenkins projects as a smart, modern coach who should have long-term success. Still, we can't absolutely guarantee Memphis doesn't fire him after 1 season, because they have done that before.
chances of firing: 3% Milwaukee: Mike Budenholzer Based on pure coaching talent and resume, Coach Bud has nothing to worry about - particularly after a 60-22 record last season. The only reason that I'm even putting him in this category at all is the potential for off-the-court issues. He had been arrested before on a suspicion of DUI back in 2014, although he was later found not guilty. If something worse happens in that ilk, then he may be in trouble. But barring that, he's obviously safe.
chances of firing: 2%.
Minnesota: Ryan Saunders While interim coach Ryan Saunders (Flip's son) had been a popular pick in the locker room, he still represents a sizable risk by this new front office. After all, he's only 33 years old and hasn't been a head coach at any level prior to that short stint last season. He may be a home run; he may be a strike out. Of course, he'd have to be a wild strike out (with a bat thrown into the stands) for it to amount to a firing in year one.
chances of firing: 5% Orlando: Steve Clifford Veteran Steve Clifford did a tremendous job in his first year in Orlando, helping the team improve from 25-57 to 42-40 and a playoff trip. There's a chance the Magic may stagnate in R1 unless one of their young players (Jon Isaac, Mo Bamba, Markelle Fultz) takes a "leap," but they should have patience with Clifford for at least another year or two. Barring health issues, his job is safe.
chances of firing: 2%.
Phoenix: Monty Williams One of the reasons we can't claim rookie coaches are entirely safe is because teams like Phoenix have fired them in the past -- including Igor Kokoskov last season. However, it'd be very difficult for any owner (even Robert Sarver) to justify doing it two times in a row. In fact, Monty Williams secured a 5-year deal to help prevent that nonsense.
chances of firing: 2%.
Sacramento: Luke Walton Despite mixed results in L.A., Luke Walton was a hot commodity with the Sacramento Kings franchise, who gave him a nice 4-year contract. Of course, that happened before the sexual misconduct allegations that surfaced since. While that appears to have quieted down, any
new rumor or accusation may turn up the heat on Walton. Barring that, the team should stand by their man.
chances of firing: 5%.
Toronto: Nick Nurse Nick Nurse is about as close to "untouchable" as you can get for a coach with 1 year of experience. But hey, that was a heck of a year. Nurse won the title, and outfoxed several great coaches along the way. The Raptors could probably sink down as low as 30 wins (unlikely) and still keep Nurse for the long haul.
chances of firing: 1%.
Utah: Quin Snyder While Quin Snyder hasn't had a huge amount of playoff success yet himself, he's also quickly established himself as one of the better NBA coaches. Over the last three years, the Jazz have played lockdown defense and averaged 49.7 wins. This offseason has raised expectations, but Snyder should be safe for another season or two even if they slightly underachieve. The bigger issue would be if Snyder gets in trouble off the court; he had a wilder history in college prior to straightening out in the pros.
chances of firing: 4%.
YOU'RE SAFE (FOR NOW) (again, alphabetically)
Atlanta: Lloyd Pierce In theory, Lloyd Pierce should be in great shape here in Atlanta. The young team had a solid 29-53 season in his first year, and their young core projects well for the future. That said, expectations will rise over time. Pierce was partly hired for his defensive reputation, but the team only ranked 27th last season. With Trae Young (who graded dead last in ESPN RPM on defense), that may be hard to change. Hopefully rookies De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish will solve that issue, but if not, Pierce may start feeling some heat in 2020. When he was hired, the team only gave him a 3 year contract, which indicates that he didn't have much leverage coming in.
chances of firing: 7.5% Charlotte: James Borrego Like Lloyd Pierce, James Borrego will be entering Year 2 in a rebuilding situation that should lend itself to patience. On the other hand, logic tends to go out the window when it comes to the Charlotte Hornets. Borrego will have to deal with a weak roster, and a shaky front office that just gave $19M a season to Terry Rozier. I expect Borrego will survive for a while, but we can't rule out a house cleaning.
chances of firing: 10%.
Brooklyn: Kenny Atkinson Kenny Atkinson has done a great job bringing the Nets out of a deep black hole rebuild, but now the expectations will vault up with the arrival of Kyrie Irving (and soon Kevin Durant.) Presumably, those stars wouldn't have signed up in the first place if they didn't like Atkinson. That said, their opinions can change at the drop of a hat. A disappointment in 2019-20? Okay fine.
Another in 2020-21? Then Atkinson will start feeling that seat warm.
chances of firing: 4% Dallas: Rick Carlisle As one of the most respected coaches (and a title winner to boot), Rick Carlisle should have job security for life. Still, the NBA will always be a stars league, and Carlisle's star isn't Dirk Nowitzki anymore. It's going to be Luka Doncic (and Kristaps Porzingis' team), and Carlisle will need to appease them to some degree. Missing the playoffs this year may be fine, but whiffing again in 2020-21 would be problematic; it would be the 5th season in a row without a playoff berth.
chances of firing/retiring: 5% Denver: Mike Malone After a premature exit in Sacramento, Mike Malone has rebuilt his stock by lifting Denver to contender status. He's improved every year, from 30-52 to 33-49 to 40-42 to 46-36 to the breakout 54-28 record last season. Of course, that also comes with rising expectations. Like the others in this section, Malone could survive one regression year, but two disappointing years in a row would be a problem.
chances of firing: 5%.
Detroit: Dwane Casey Of all our coaches, Dwane Casey knows that one should never get too comfortable. After all, he was fired after a 59-win season (and a Coach of the Year trophy) in Toronto. After that, he still had enough leverage to earn a 5-year deal in Detroit, which should buy him quite a bit of time. Still, a 41-41 start was "meh." To make matters worse, Nick Nurse and the Raptors won the title without him (albeit with Kawhi Leonard.) Given Casey's big contract, he should be safe in Year 2 and Year 3, but there's hardly a guarantee he'll survive all 5 years of the deal.
chances of firing: 5%.
10 HOTTEST SEATS (in order)
(10) Portland: Terry Stotts Remember, this isn't a ranking of the best and worst coaches but merely their situations. In fact, everyone would agree that Terry Stotts is a very good basketball coach. In fact, if you asked the other NBA coaches to rank their peers, I suspect Stotts may even crack the top 5. That skill has manifested on the court as well. His Blazers have made the playoffs for 6 seasons in a row, and had a mini-breakout with a Conference Finals trip this year.
Still,
making the playoffs doesn't lock in job security in the NBA; winning a title does. And until that happens, the franchise will always wonder in the back of their minds on whether or not they should pull a "Masai Ujiri" and squeeze Stotts out for a younger assistant on his staff like Nate Tibbetts, a rising star in the ranks.
After tasting the WCF last year, can Stotts afford to take a step back? Probably. Losing in R2 seems about right for this team as presently constructed. But what if they lose in R1? Then it becomes more of a debate. I'd still recommend keeping Stotts and tweaking the roster instead (ya'll got any more of them stretch PFs?) but I'm not in charge of the team and I'm not ruling any shake-ups out.
chances of firing: 15% (9) Indiana: Nate McMillan As with Terry Stotts, it may feel strange to see Nate McMillan on this list. At first glance, neither should be on the hot seat at all. In McMillan's three years on the job, he's guided the team to winning records and playoff trips in each season. The Pacers just finished 48-34 despite Victor Oladipo's injury, and may be better than that this season with new additions like Malcolm Brogdon.
Still, we have to go deeper than the first glance here. Indiana thrives on the basis of their defense (ranked 3rd last season), which is heavily influenced by assistant Dan Burke and DPOY candidate Myles Turner. Offensively, the team tends to look a little scattered and uncreative, which has Pacers fans quietly murmuring about McMillan. They added some new scorers in Brogdon and T.J. Warren, but both are players coming off career years from 3. If they regress at all -- and this
team regresses at all -- then McMillan may be in more trouble than we realize.
Am I expected that? Not really. If I had to bet, I would bank on the Pacers winning 45-50 games and McMillan lasting at least another season. But if we're looking for potential hot seat situations, we can't ignore the potential downside here. If they underachieve, McMillan may be the fall guy.
chances of firing: 20% (8) N.Y. Knicks: David Fizdale We can't judge David Fizdale too harshly based on his 17-65 record in year one. After all, tanking and landing a top 3 pick was all part of the plan. But what's the plan going forward? After striking out with the superstars in free agency, the Knicks signed a bunch of B+ and C+ players to big money. With it, they've attempted to re-set expectations. Instead of landing superstars in 2019, they're going to land them in 2021! Hopefully?
In the meantime, David Fizdale should be able to survive until then. His team is still young, and features first and second year players like R.J. Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox, and Dennis Smith. Practically speaking, the veterans like Julius Randle and Bobby Portis are meant to supplement that rebuilding movement. Fizdale should be allowed to develop this group, and be afforded some growing pains in 2019-20 and again in 2020-21.
However, there are a few factors working against him. The front office may fancy themselves a playoff contender out East, which may go sour by the end of the year. Moreover, that front office isn't exactly on solid ground themselves after getting pounded by the press this summer. Dolan may want a complete fresh start after this year. More than that, there's a non-zero chance James Dolan leaves town himself, and some super-billionaire like Jeff Bezos uses his change jar to buy the team and mold it into his image. At the end of the day, there's more uncertainty with this situation than a second-year coach would like to see.
chances of firing: 20% (7) Chicago: Jim Boylen As a well-respected defensive coordinator, Jim Boylen's name has always been bandied about for head coaching jobs in the past. He finally got his opportunity last season after taking over for apple pie Fred Hoiberg in mid-season.
At first, it did
not go well. Jim Boylen had about as rocky of a start as you can imagine, earning negative reports in the press about his drill sergeant attitude clashing with the locker room. Still, he turned that perception around and had a decent finish to the year and earned some "buy in" from the players. Better yet, his Chicago Bulls may be a darkhorse contender for the # 8 seed. They have offensive stars in Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen already, so an improved defense may vault them closer to .500. Even if that doesn't happen (yet), Boylen should feel safe knowing he has the backing of the front office.
Of course, that also ties Boylen's fate to that front office. Ownership has tended to leave Gar Forman and John Paxson alone, but it's not a lifetime appointment. If this team doesn't improve enough (and wins say, 25 or 30 games), then there may be a total housecleaning here. I'm a little more optimistic on the Bulls' chances of winning 35-40 games than others, but we can't rule a potential disaster out.
chances of firing: 25% (6) Philadelphia: Brett Brown After a long dark winter, Brett Brown and the Philadelphia 76ers have emerged from the "Process" intact. In fact, Brown has won more games in each of the last two seasons (52 and 50) then he did over his first three seasons
combined (47). But with that comes raised expectations, which may be higher than ever. With Kawhi Leonard out of the Conference and the sheen off the Boston Celtics, the Sixers are the co-favorites with Milwaukee to make the Finals. Losing in the Conference Finals would be acceptable, but a R1 or R2 loss may be stinging.
Would that disappointment be enough to cost Brown his job? It's debatable. His contract extension runs through 2021-22, but that's never stopped a coach from being fired before. Fans may grow frustrated if Ben Simmons still can't shoot, or if Joel Embiid can't stay healthy, or if Philly's defense doesn't look as dominant as it should be on paper (despite Simmons, Embiid, and Jimmy Butler, they only ranked # 15 last season.) It's very possible that Brown becomes the scapegoat here.
Of course, we're talking "worst case scenarios" here. Chances are: the Sixers should be quite good and have a very good chance to make the ECF or the Finals. So while we can't rule out a firing, we wouldn't bet on it either.
chances of firing: 30% (5) New Orleans: Alvin Gentry After coming over from Golden State, the exceptions for Alvin Gentry in New Orleans were sky-high. Suffice it to say, it's been an underwhelming return so far. Despite the (occasional) presence of Anthony Davis, his Pelicans have won less than 35 games in three of his four seasons on the job.
Oddly, Davis' trade demands may have
helped Gentry survive another year. With the blockbuster deal, expectations get re-set and the window extends again. On paper, Gentry and assistant Chris Finch's run-and-gun style should suit this new roster well. Gentry is also someone who's earned high praise from his players and from the media in the past. If new execs David Griffin and Trajan Langdon didn't believe in him, they had the opportunity to make that change this past summer.
But alas, that doesn't mean they won't have that same opportunity again next summer. Gentry's contract will be running out, and the team may decide to go with someone younger than him (he's now age 64.) To earn a longer leash, Gentry doesn't need to make the playoffs, but he has to show reasons for optimism. The Pelicans need to find a clear role for Zion Williamson, and earn some improvement from the cast-off Lakers. There's a lot of talent on the roster, but if the team stalls or looks like a muddled mess, Griffin may likely clean up the picture and chose his own head coach the next time around.
chances of firing: 35% (4) Houston: Mike D'Antoni Veteran Mike D'Antoni may start spitting out Rodney Dangerfield routines, because the poor guy doesn't get much respect. Despite a great run here in Houston (records of 55-27, 65-17, 53-29), he's still struggling to earn a contract extension from the franchise.
And while owner Tilman Fertitta gets the blame for that, we can't rule out Daryl Morey's influence either. Morey has stated in the past that he thinks coaches' messages tend to run stale after a few years, and that philosophy has born out in their decision making. Jeff Van Gundy lasted 4 years. After him, Rick Adelman lasted 4 years. After him, Kevin McHale lasted 4 years (+10 games). This season, Mike D'Antoni will be entering the dreaded 4th year himself. The Houston Rockets' job essentially has strict presidential term limits, and he's verging on lame duck status.
To up the degree of difficulty even further, the team added Russell Westbrook to the equation. That's not to say it's the wrong decision by any means or that it won't work out (personally I'd still peg them for a top 3 seed), but we have to admit there's a sizable
chance that it won't work out. The chemistry for Harden + Westbrook is going to be harder to calculate now that they've both had considerable success (and MVP seasons). And if something doesn't click, it will certainly be easier to blame D'Antoni than the two stars, whose massive contracts run for another few seasons.
chances of firing/retiring: 40% (3) L.A. Lakers: Frank Vogel It's rare to see a first-year coach listed this high, but this is rare circumstances indeed. Frank Vogel will be joining the Lakers on a 3-year contract, which is quite light for a veteran like him. That fact showcases his limited leverage and his reduced reputation. The Lakers didn't high the coach who guided the Indiana Pacers to the ECF; they hired the coach who led Orlando to 29-53 and 25-57 records. In some ways, Vogel is lucky to have landed any job at all.
But there's no mistaking the fact that
this particular job will come with some challenges. Primary among them: the threat of assistant Jason Kidd breathing down his neck. According to some, Kidd was the first choice of the front office, and the conspiracy theory that they simply didn't want to hire him outright (due to domestic violence charges in the past) checks out logically for me. Vogel can't be too pleased to turn on the Summer League and watch his new star LeBron James sitting next to Kidd in Vegas either.
Will LeBron James, Rich Paul, and Jason Kidd conspire to stab Vogel like Caesar? The odds are high. But the question is a matter of "when?" James didn't love David Blatt, but allowed him 1.5 on the job before he got the boot. The Lakers may end up giving Vogel a full season and change to make his impact on the defensive end before considering a full-time change in midseason in 2020-21.
And hey, we can't rule out the "what if it works?" theory either. This team has LeBron James and Anthony Davis, for fuck's sake. They have a legitimate chance to be a great team, and even an NBA champion. If
that happens, Vogel won't be going anywhere (at least, not for another year or two.)
chances of firing: 45% (2) Washington: Scottie Brooks The Scottie Brooks era in Washington has been a disappointment, and it won't get much prettier from here. After the John Wall injury, the Wizards will be entering 2019-20 with one legitimate star in Bradley Beal and a wonky supporting cast. They're a motley crew of decent prospects who may be 2 years away (Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant) and veterans who may be 2 years removed from quality play (Isaiah Thomas, Ish Smith, C.J. Miles.) Realistically speaking, Bradley Beal will have to put in a Herculean effort for this group to win 35 games.
If there's any reason to think the axe will
not come for Scottie Brooks' head, it's that this Washington Wizards owner Ted Leonsis isn't the
"off with his head!" type. He's been patience with the Washington Capitals hockey team, as well as this Wizards unit. Former GM Ernie Grunfeld lasted for years past his expiration date. And in turn, Brooks may be allowed to play out another year of his (pricy) contract. Brooks also has a reputation as a good player development coach, which bodes well for his prospects during a possible rebuild to come.
All that said, Brooks shouldn't be investing in D.C. real estate. The clock is ticking. I would fully expect new acting GM Tommy Sheppard to cut Brooks loose and choose his own coach at some point, but we can't be 100% confident it will happen after
this season or after the next.
chances of firing: 50% (1) Oklahoma City: Billy Donovan Given his new status as a /NBA punching bag, it's hard to under-sell just how much leverage Billy Donovan had when he first came to Oklahoma City. We're talking about a well-paid college coach who had won two separate NCAA titles at Florida, and had resisted the NBA calls for years. He arrived in OKC with a 5-year deal in tow, as well as a reputation as one of the best coaches in basketball.
As we now enter Year 5 of that contract, Donovan's reputation has been tarnished considerably. He's been blasted for perceived underachievement, particularly in the postseason. With Kevin Durant, the team blew a 3-1 lead to Golden State, and hasn't won a playoff series since (losing in R1 three times in a row.) In fact, they've gone 4-15 in playoff games since then. Donovan's managed to avoid getting the boot because of his reputation and big contract, but those excuses won't hold off the executioner much longer.
Personally, I'm a little bit of a "Donovan Defender." I don't think he's done as bad of a job as advertised. After all, his worst regular season record has been 47-35. He's kept the team afloat without Kevin Durant. And sure, he probably should have reined in Russell Westbrook, but it's not easy to harness an MVP. The fact that Donovan won 48 games with a guard who jacked up 20 shots a game (at 50.1% true shooting) is oddly impressive in a way. And heck, let's even defend blowing the 3-1 lead. It's not like OKC woke up one morning with a 3-1 lead under their Christmas tree; Donovan used some wily tricks and unconventional lineups to help earn those 3 wins in the first place.
But again, these rankings aren't about my perception of the coaches, but rather my perception of their situations and stocks. In theory, this OKC roster isn't half bad and could flirt with .500 if they wanted to pursue the playoffs. And in theory, if they blow it up, then a college coach like Donovan may be well suited for that rebuild. But in
reality, I just don't see an extension here. The marriage has soured, resentment has built up, and a divorce may be best for both parties involved.
chances of firing: 55% submitted by The NBA Finals have arrived as the Toronto Raptors will look to defend home court against the two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors in Game 1 Thursday night. With so much on the line Vegas Odds News Toronto Raptors Defeat Golden State Warriors in Game 1, 118-109. Annie Adkins. 2 years ago Shutterstock.com | moondes Pascal Siakam led his Toronto Raptors to their first win in the NBA Finals. His Raptors defeated the Golden State Warriors with 118-109, and took the lead in this series. Golden State is a one-point favorite to win the opener, while the over-under is 213.5, per VegasInsider.com. Warriors as -280 favorites to win the series, while the Raptors are +230 to earn their... Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors Vegas Odds & NBA Picks The Golden State Warriors will attempt to cultivate their winning disposition and will strive to capture their fourth consecutive victory while looking to stay atop their division as they get ready to resume hostilities against the Toronto Raptors. The two inter-conference belligerents and top […] Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Odds - Sunday June 2 2019. Live betting odds and lines, betting trends, against the spread and over/under trends, injury reports and matchup stats for bettors. Golden State Warriors (15-7) vs Toronto Raptors. (18-4). Time: 8:00 PM ET Date: Thursday, November 29, 2018 Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario Watch on: NBCS Bay Area, TSN Spread: Toronto -8 Moneyline: Toronto -360 Total O/U: 226 The Toronto Raptors are an NBA-best 18-4 and have reeled off six straight wins, already their third six-game winning streak of the season. NBA Finals 2019: Odds and predictions for Game 6 between the Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are favoured to win Game 6 but most of our staff believe the Raptors will win once again at Oracle Arena, this time to secure their first title.
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